As of press time, bitcoin’s 50-week moving average has dropped below the 100-week MA, confirming a bearish crossover – the first since April 2015. Long-term bearish crossovers, however, tend to occur at the end of a big bear move, with prices rallying soon after, as MAs are based on past data.
For instance, the 50-week MA responds to price action seen over the last 12 months, and the 100-week MA tracks much older data. Therefore, the bearish cross of the two is the product of a prolonged bear market – BTC dropped from $20,000 to $3,122 in the 12 months ending December 2018.
Put simply, it takes a great effort on the part of the bears to push the 50-week MA below the 100-week MA. As a result, the bear market is usually exhausted by the time the crossover is confirmed, which seems to be the case with BTC.
The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization is currently trading at $3,749, up more than 19 percent from the lows near $3,100 seen 11 weeks ago. Further, bitcoin’s historical data shows the previous bear market ended with the 50-week MA falling below the 100-week MA in April 2015.
The relative strength index (RSI) has breached the falling trendline, warning the bear cross could trap sellers on the wrong side of the market. Further, the cryptocurrency is now looking north, having witnessed a high-volume bullish breakout last week.
So, there is a strong possibility that BTC will begin a new bull run later this year by violating the bearish lower highs pattern, as represented by the trendline sloping downwards from December 2017 highs.